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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd