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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers rising in unison. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still