Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Drop Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The typical count of per-day homicides monthly in the country has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh government data. But, security experts have advised that murder numbers might not signal enhanced countrywide safety.

Notable Reduction in Daily Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President began the presidential office in the previous September. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded over these months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the lowest number of homicides were registered for any November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly militarised operations to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her public safety strategy for an seemingly steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the President declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater coordination between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts cautioned that relying on homicide data to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is notably true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for assessing the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to correctly identify and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it might hide days when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by extreme violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the country to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to build a story of security. Politically it’s very successful, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.